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The Base Case GDPNow model with weekly time series data on real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) by the Institute for Supply Management and real personal consumption expenditures growth and on the Producer Price Index and on industrial production levels is available at: http://www.dallasfed.org/new-indexes-gpdn/
The Base Case GDPNow model was updated on October 28, 2020, and subsequently revised on November 1, 2020, to incorporate information on growth in weekly US government refundable tax deposits and to forecast GDP growth for week ending December 2, 2020. At the time of this updates the model featured an 80% probability of growth in the GDPNow, economic confidence, and new home sales models at a rate of 1 percent, whereas the US Federal Reserve Bank indicated that they were forecasting a 50-60% probability of a second round of quantitative easing later in 2020.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is a slightly better-than-average growth of 2.3 percent (a 90% probability). After this mornings US Census Bureau Report on Construction Spending and the Institute for Supply Management Report on November Manufacturing Report On Business and a slight decrease in nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.0 percent to 4.0 percent, the GDPNow model indicates an above-average growth of real private domestic investment of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.
The GDPNow model estimates for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 are around 1 percent (a 95% probability). The US Bureau of Economic Analysis says it is forecasting growth of 1.9 percent, while the US Bureau of Labor Statistics says it is forecasting a 0.1 percent increase in real personal consumption expenditures growth. The US Census Bureau says it is forecasting growth of 1.4 percent.
The BEAs estimate of the change in GDP is derived from the change in real GDP and the changes in its components. Most of the real GDP components are estimated based on existing data sources. Market Basket Composite: Includes personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, government consumption expenditures, and net exports. Market basket changes from month to month are estimated using an import price index, a export price index, and seasonally adjusted production-based, monthly data on the value of real income (i.e., owner’s equivalent rent, owner’s equivalent capital expenditure, and owner’s equivalent gross rental yields). The BEAs monthly labor force and employment data are obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BEAs data on hours worked and weekly hours are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Units of GDP by commodity are based on market price data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Energy. The BEAs revised estimates of net trade, the income component of GDP, are based on U.S. balance of payment data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the BEAs construction spending and industrial production data. The BEAs quarterly estimates of GDP by industry and by business size are based on the distribution of income of proprietors from the IRS. Corporate profits account for most of the income component of GDP, but the BEAs corporate profit data do not come directly from the IRS. For each corporation the BEAs expects its average profit margin in each quarter. Then, for each quarter, the BEAs divides the division of profits over average profits by the division of income over average profits to arrive at estimates of gross domestic profit (GDP). The BEAs estimate of output by region is derived from data on business establishments from the Census Bureau. Like many other estimates of GDP, the BEAs GDPNow model assumes homogeneity of treatment. This means that the relative prices of different goods and services are assumed to be unaffected by the level of aggregate demand.
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